Deepening Canada-India standoff seen as a short-term boost for Modi, Trudeau

NEW DELHI/OTTAWA: The prime ministers of India and Canada could benefit politically in the short term from the unprecedented expulsion of top diplomats from each country, analysts said on Tuesday (Oct 15).
Canada kicked out six Indian diplomats on Monday, linking them to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader and alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents in Canada. India retaliated by telling six Canadian diplomats to leave.
Although the tit-for-tat move sent bilateral relations skidding to a new low, Narendra Modi and Justin Trudeau are unlikely to mind too much. Both leaders are in their third terms and face political challenges.
Analysts suggested the move could bolster Modi’s image as a hawk on national security.
“I think people will see the government of India standing up to intimidation and coercive measures applied by a developed country,” said Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary. “The public will strongly back Prime Minister Modi and the government.”
In a June election, Modi suffered a setback when his Bharatiya Janata Party unexpectedly lost its majority. In his weakened position, Modi is forced to rely on regional allies to form a coalition government.
But Cristine de Clercy, professor of politics at Trent University in Peterborough, said any bump for Trudeau would likely be brief.
“You could say, yes, the short-term upside is to displace headlines,” she said. “The list of domestic issues that he has to address is so much longer and more complicated than this single incident in a faraway country.”
The politically influential Sikh community has backed the Liberals and other parties in recent years. At least one leader said he welcomed the expulsions but did not expect the dispute to impact domestic politics.
“It shows that the government is actually holding India to account, which is actually their job,” said Moninder Singh, a spokesperson for the nonprofit BC Gurdwaras Council which represents Sikh institutions in the province.